DOI: https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2020-37-1-115-124

Improvement of the scientific and methodological apparatus by recognizing the level of danger of the situation in the case of changing the characteristics of the informing of the decision maker

Олег Васильович Боровик, Людмила Володимирівна Боровик, Олександр Васильович Андрушко

Abstract


Research on systemic problems of recognizing the level of danger of situations and preventing critical situations in complex systems of various purposes is an urgent task. This is because the partial or complete destruction of such systems causes not only catastrophic consequences for themselves, but also leads to significant losses that often exceed the cost of the systems themselves. The latter can be both material and non-material. The analysis of a number of catastrophes in different fields of human activity shows that the magnitude of losses can be much smaller if, in an emergency situation, rational decisions are made and implemented in a timely manner. One approach to addressing the challenges of identifying and preventing critical situations in complex systems is an approach based on the implementation of mechanisms for adjusting the awareness of the decision-maker.
The paper formalizes the problem of increasing the reliability of data to determine the permissible time period for the formation and implementation of a solution for which the probability of transition of a certain situation in a critical, emergency or catastrophic will not exceed the set value, as well as the classification and recognition of the level of danger situations. Also, the analysis of the existing approach to solving the formulated problem in the case of applying a mechanistic approach to determining quantitative indicators of the decision-maker's awareness was made, which revealed the problematic issues that occur in its application. Based on the application of the analogy system, an approach is proposed to improve the efficiency of solving such problems and to provide software and algorithmic support for its implementation.
This approach is based on establishing a list of reasons that determine the factors that may change the situation of the investigated system, their weight, options for the influence of causes on the appearance of the factor, and based on this refinement of the confidence indicator of the decision-maker. It can also be used to improve the accuracy of assessment and other quantitative indicators of a person's awareness, including completeness and timeliness.
The algorithmic implementation of the author's approach for solving the problem under study allows you to automate the individual steps of solving the problem and improve the level of objectivity of the solutions.


Keywords


mathematical model; critical situation; decision maker; awareness; reliability; factors; causes; expert judgment; matrices; algorithm; software

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