DOI: https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2019-34-1-155-160

The risk assessment in the state aviation safety performance system

Oleksii Martyniuk, Oleh Radko, Yevhen Honcharenko

Abstract


The commander of the aviation unit makes a decision to conduct flights in conditions of uncertainty. Lack of full input information makes him rely on his own experience and intuition. In this case, the existing regulatory framework does not require the decision maker to carry out risk assessment in relation to the implementation of the decision on the safety of flights. And as a result, quality of decision fully depends on a competence and experience of decision maker. The article considers the possibility of implementation of the theory of risks approaches in the system of ensuring safety of flights of state aviation. A decision-making algorithm based on risk assessment is proposed. The analysis of methods used in civil aviation for risk assessment is carried out. The expediency of their application for conditions of state aviation activity is considered. In order to solve the tasks of assessing the safety risks of state aviation of Ukraine it is proposed to use a combination of Bayesian analysis method, the method of Risk Indicators and the 5x5 hazard/frequency matrix method.


Keywords


safety performance; theory of risks; state aviation

References


1. NATO STANAG 7106, FLIGHT SAFETY, March 2007, AFSP-1(A).

2. Flight safety for the Canadian Armed Forces. A-GA-135-001/AA-001. 6 July 2015.

3. Safety Management Manual Doc 9859, Forth edition 2018, available at: https://www.unitingaviation.com/publications/9859/ (21.01.2019)

4. Povitrianyi Kodeks Ukrainy. Ukaz Prezydenta Ukrainy № 3393–VI vid 19.05.2011.

5. ISO 31000:2018 “Risk management – Guidelines” available at: https://www.iso.org/standard/65694.html

6. Natsionalnyi standart Ukrainy DSTU IES/ISO 31010:2013 “Keruvannia ryzykom. Metody zahalnoho otsiniuvannia ryzyku”.

7. Natsionalnyi standart Ukrainy DSTU ISO Gude 73:2012 “Rysk menedzhment. Terminy ta vyznachennia”.

8. Gerd Els, Safety Assessment Methodologies and Application for the Deployment of Laptops in Production System Environment, available at: https://www.giac.org/paper/gsec/4219/safety-assessments-methodologies-applica-tion-deployment-laptops-production-system/106765 (21.01.2019)

9. Kaplan S., Garric B. On the Quantitative Definition of Risk.Risk fndFnalysis.Vol.1, no. 1, 1981. Pp. 11-27.

10. Netjasov F., Janic M. A Review of Research on Risk and Safety Modeling in Civil Aviation. Journal of Air Transport Management.Vol.14, issue 4, 2008, Pp. 213-220.


GOST Style Citations


1. NATO STANAG 7106, FLIGHT SAFETY, March 2007, AFSP-1(A).

2. Flight safety for the Canadian Armed Forces. A-GA-135-001/AA-001. 6 July 2015.

3. Safety Management Manual Doc 9859 [Електронний ресурс] – Режим доступу: https://www.unitingaviation.com/publications/9859 (21.01.2019 р.)

4. Повітряний Кодекс України. Указ Президента України № 3393–VI від 19.05.2011.

5. Міжнародний стандарт ISO 31000:2018 “Risk management – Guidelines”.

6. Національний стандарт України ДСТУ IES/ISO 31010:2013 “Керування ризиком. Методи загального оцінювання ризику”.

7. Національний стандарт України ДСТУ ISO Gude 73:2012 “Риск менеджмент. Терміни та визначення”.

8. Gerd Els, Safety Assessment Methodologies and Application for the Deployment of Laptops in Production System Environment.[Електронний ресурс] // – Режим доступу: ttps://www.giac.org/paper/gsec/4219/safety-assessments-methodologies-applica-tion-deployment-laptops-production-system/106765 (21.01.2019.)

9. Kaplan S., Garric B. On the Quantitative Definition of Risk.Risk fndFnalysis.Vol.1, no. 1, 1981. Pp. 11-27.

10. Netjasov F., Janic M. A Review of Research on Risk and Safety Modeling in Civil Aviation. Journal of Air Transport Management.Vol.14, issue 4, 2008, Pp. 213-220.





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ISSN 2311-7249 (Print)