DOI: https://doi.org/10.33099/2311-7249/2019-34-1-139-142

In forecasting of long duration prognostication of indexes of quality of perspective standards of armaments in the conditions of unstochastic vagueness

Nataliia Koroliuk, Serhii Listrovyj, Mykola Shcerbakov

Abstract


The process of determining the predictive values of the quality indicator of a weapon of a weapon for a long-term perspective, which involves taking into account the conditions of the fuzzy environment, which is formed by natural and behavioral non-stochastic uncertainties and uncertainty of the purpose of the operation. The membership function determines the person making the decision on the basis of its compliance with the physical content of the indicator. The numerical measure of the uncertainty of experts regarding the expression of their subjective thoughts is determined by the attribute function parameter, which describes its "blurriness". As a range of predictive values, clear subsets of carriers of the values of indicators are offered. The physical content of the form of the function of belonging and the parameter of its "blurriness" of the fuzzy subset, which corresponds to the quality indicator being considered, and the definite clear interval of its predictive values at the time with the accepted level of trust by the value of the membership function is substantiated.


Keywords


of long duration prognostication; indexes of quality; standards of armaments; unstochastic vagueness

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